Uhlalutyo lwamanani lubonise ukuba "i-hot streak" okanye umtya wempumelelo yinyani kwaye wonke umntu ufumana oku ngexesha elithile kwimisebenzi yakhe..
"I-Hot streak", ekwabizwa ngokuba "yi-winning streak" ichazwa njengoloyiso olulandelelanayo okanye mpu melelo okanye ukubaleka okulungileyo amathamsanqa. Yinto eyimfihlakalo xa kwaye kutheni ukwenza okuphumelela imigca kwenzeka kwikhondo lomntu okt leliphi inqanaba aphumelele kakhulu kulo okanye benombono obalaseleyo woyilo. I nzu lulwazi kwaye abeenkcukacha-manani baye bacingisisa ngale nto kwaye ngamanye amaxesha baye baxhasa ithiyori 'yokwenzeka' kwiimpumelelo ezinjalo zilandelelana. Umzekelo, kwibala lezemidlalo, ukuphoswa kwethiyori yengqekembe kusetyenziswa ukuba xa umntu ephosa ingqekembe amaxesha amaninzi ulandelelwano olungacwangciswanga lunokwenzeka nakweyiphi na indawo. Ngamanye amaxesha kwakukholelwa ukuba umsebenzi onzima unokunyusa amathuba okuba shushu okanye unokunceda ubuncinane ukuqhubeka okanye ukuwugcina. Akukabikho nkcazo ebanzi okanye enengqiqo emva kombono we-hot streak. Wonke umntu ufuna ukufikelela 'kwifomula eyimfihlo' yeendlela zabo ezitshisayo kuba wonke umntu uleqa impumelelo eninzi kwimisebenzi yakhe.
Ingqikelelo ye "hot streak"
Kwiphononongo epapashwe kuyo indalo, abaphandi baseKellogg School of Management kwiYunivesithi yaseNorthwestern, eU.SA bahlalutya kwaye bagweba i-dataset yemisebenzi yeenzululwazi ze-20,400, i-6,233 yemifanekiso eshukumayo / abalawuli befilimu kunye ne-3,480 yamagcisa agxininise ngokubanzi kwiinkalo zobugcisa kunye isayensi. Kumagcisa, abaphandi bajonga amaxabiso emisebenzi yabo abawabiza ngokulula kwaye bawafumana kwiifandesi zobugcisa. Indlela elungileyo yokugweba abalawuli beefilim yayijonge ukulinganisa kwabo kwiwebhusayithi ye-IMDB (i-Internet Movie DataBase) ngenxa yokuba iireyithingi zabo zenyuka zinyuka ngokusekelwe kwindlela abaphumelele ngayo ngexesha. Ukuhlalutya uqikelelo lwekhondo lezazinzulu kunye nabaphandi, kwabonwa ukuba bangakanani na uphando imisebenzi yacatshulwa kwiijenali zemfundo (idatha eqokelelwe kuMfundi kaGoogle kunye neWebhu yeSayensi). Abaphandi cacisa ukuba “ixesha elishushu” elichazwa njengethuba lobuchule obunamandla bokuyila obuboniswa ngabantu yenzeka kube kanye kumsebenzi womntu kwaye idla ngokuqhubeka isithuba esimalunga neminyaka emihlanu. Ngeli xesha lichumileyo, impumelelo efunyenweyo iphezulu kunalo naliphi na elinye ixesha kwikhondo lomsebenzi. Phantse ikota yalo lonke eli qula labantu liye laphumelela kabini nangaphezulu. Ngoko ke, olu luhlu oluphumeleleyo luninzi kakhulu "lwenyani" kwaye alukho ingcamango engeyonyani (njengoko ngamanye amaxesha kucingelwa) kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo kwenzeka ngaphandle kwesilumkiso. Kangangamashumi eminyaka, abahlalutyi baye bagcina ukuba wonke umntu ufikelela incopho phakathi komsebenzi othile, umzekelo, ukuba umntu uqala ukusebenza eneminyaka engama-25 aze athathe umhlala-phantsi ngama-60, bafumana incopho ngaxa lithile xa bekwiminyaka engamashumi amane. Nangona kunjalo, ubungqina kolu phando lwamva nje luthi i-hot streak ingaphezulu "engaqhelekanga" kwaye inokwenzeka kulo naliphi na inqanaba lomsebenzi womntu. Ke, oku kuphumeleleyo akunanto yakwenza nobudala. Ngokomzekelo, isazinzulu okanye umzobi unokuba nolu luhlu lwempumelelo okanye "incopho yokuyila" ekuqaleni, phakathi okanye kamva inxalenye yomsebenzi wakhe.
Akukho nto iphumelela njengempumelelo!
Kwakhona, ihlalutyelwe ukuba ixesha leminyaka emihlanu libonisa ukuba nje ukuba i-streak eshushu iqaliswe kwaye inqanaba eliphezulu lempumelelo liphunyeziwe, oku kukhokelela kwimpumelelo ethe gqolo elandelayo efaka ithamsanqa kumsebenzi womntu kangangexesha elithile elongezelelweyo ngendlela edibeneyo. . Enye impumelelo ebalaseleyo inokumenza umntu abe nombono ongakumbi aze azive onwabile ngoko akwazi ukukwenza. Oku kunika udumo olungakumbi kunye nokuqatshelwa komsebenzi wabo ngaloo ndlela baqhubela phambili impumelelo yabo ixesha elide. Igalelo elikhulu liyenzeka ngenxa yonxulumano nohlobo olufanelekileyo lwabantu emva kokuba ukuphumelela kwamanqaku kuqale. Umzekelo, isazinzulu esiphumelele impumelelo enkulu siya kufumana izibonelelo / inkxaso-mali kunye namabhaso amaninzi kwaye umzobi unokukwazi ukuzakhela igalari yakhe kwaye oku kunokuzisa ngakumbi udumo kunye nokuthandwa. Ngokunjalo, abalathisi beefilimu banokufumana amaxabiso emiboniso bhanyabhanya ngakumbi kunye neefilimu ukuze balathise kwaye kwinani eliphezulu lokuphindaphinda kunye nesabelo senzuzo, singasathethi ke ngodumo olungakumbi ngamabhaso efilimu. Umzobi odumileyo uVincent van Gogh waba nomdlalo oshushu ngonyaka we-1888 xa wayepeyinta imizobo engaphezulu kwama-200 kwaye kwinqaku lobuqu wasuka eParis waya kwindawo encinci phakathi kwendalo eMzantsi waseFrance nto leyo yamenza wonwaba ngakumbi kwaye wanelisekile. UAlbert Einstein, isazi sefiziksi esidumileyo, wayenenyama eshushu engaqhelekanga ngo-1905 xa wafumanisa ithiyori yokunxibelelana waza wafumana ibhaso leNobel ngayo. Emva koko, wafumanisa intshukumo yeBrownian-indlela iimolekyuli ezinxibelelana ngayo enye kwenye-iphawula eli xesha lixesha elizukileyo lokufunyanwa kwefiziksi.
Abaphandi bayayiqonda into yokuba isayensi okanye ubugcisa buziinkalo ezixhomekeke kakhulu kwaye umgangatho wempumelelo awunakubekwa ngokwendlela yedatha enenjongo. Kodwa kusekho indlela yehlabathi jikelele apho impumelelo inokugwetywa ngayo. Umzekelo, izazinzulu zifumana ucaphulo oluphezulu lomsebenzi wabo xa benomdlalo oshushu kwaye oku kuqhubekeka ukuya kuthi ga kwiminyaka eli-10. Ngokukwanjalo, abalawuli beefilim bafumana amanqaku aphezulu e-IMDB alinganisa omabini amabango abawafumanayo ngomsebenzi wabo kunye neenombolo zeofisi yebhokisi. Kwaye, kumagcisa, amaxabiso efandesi luphawu olulungileyo lokuthandwa kunye nempumelelo yabo kwaye okona kubaluleke kakhulu ixabiso lomsebenzi wabo. Kwaye njengoko ilizwi lihamba, akukho nto iphumelela njengempumelelo. Impumelelo enye ikhokelela kumathuba amaninzi okuphumelela ngakumbi, umjelo wemali, amabhaso kunye nokunyuselwa. Kodwa ngenxa yokuba abaphandi babejonge ukwenza uhlalutyo lweenkcukacha-manani ngoko babenomdla ngakumbi ekujongeni "ixabiso" elifunyenwe ngumntu kumsebenzi wabo. Nangona eneneni inkcazo yempumelelo inxulumene kwaye abanye abantu bayichaza ngokwendlela yokuziphatha ezisa ukwaneliseka ngokwasengqondweni kunye nesalathiso solonwabo.
Olunye umba obalulekileyo ophumeleleyo kukuba ayisiyiyo yokwenyani kuphela kodwa ayinakuqikelelwa ngokwenene kwaye inokwenzeka nangaliphi na ixesha. Emva kwexesha, mhlawumbi iminyaka emihlanu, i-hot streak inokuphela kumntu. Kolu phononongo, akukho nxibelelwano lubonakalayo phakathi kwesakhono somntu kunye nemveliso kunye nenqanaba lempumelelo ayizuzileyo kumsebenzi wakhe. Kwakhona, akukho ukwanda okubonakalayo kwimveliso yomntu "ngexesha" lomdlalo oshushu. Nangona kunjalo, i-ego ekhulayo ibonwa njengophawu olunokuthi ngokuqinisekileyo lukhokelele kwiindlela zokuyila zempumelelo. Kwaye kunethemba elikhulu kunokuvakala ukuba, wonke umntu ufumana isabelo sakhe sokubaleka okulandelelanayo, umzekelo, iipesenti ezingama-90 zezazinzulu bezinazo, kunjalo nangepesenti ezingama-91 zamagcisa kunye neepesenti ezingama-88 zomlawuli wefilimu kwidathasethi ehlalutyiweyo. Ke, kufanele ukuba ixhaphake kuwo wonke amanye amacandelo ngenxa yokuba le misebenzi mithathu sele yahluke kakhulu enye kwenye kwaye yakhethelwa uhlalutyo ikakhulu ngenxa yokulula kokudibanisa idatha yabo. "I-hot streak" ngokuqinisekileyo yinto yendalo yonke.
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{Unokufunda iphepha lokuqala lophando ngokunqakraza ikhonkco le-DOI elinikwe ngezantsi kuluhlu lwemithombo ecatshulweyo (s)}
Umthombo (s)
ULu Liu et al. 2018. Iindlela ezishushu kubugcisa, inkcubeko, kunye nemisebenzi yezenzululwazi. indalo.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0315-8
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