Inoveli yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa kwendlela inokunceda ukuqikelela indawo eza kulandela emva kwenyikima
An inyikima yinto eyenzeka xa rock underground kwi Umhlaba Uqweqwe lwaphuka ngokukhawuleza lujikeleze umgca wempazamo yokwakheka komhlaba. Oku kubangela ukukhululwa ngokukhawuleza kwamandla avelisa amaza enyikima athi emva koko enze umhlaba ushukume kwaye le yimvakalelo esawa nayo ngexesha lenyikima. Indawo apho ilitye liqheke khona ibizwa ngokuba yifocus of the inyikima kwaye indawo ngaphezulu kwayo emhlabeni ibizwa ngokuba 'yi-epicenter'. Amandla akhutshiweyo alinganiswa njengobukhulu, isikali esichaza indlela eyayinamandla ngayo inyikima. Inyikima yobukhulu be-2 ayibonakali kwaye inokurekhodwa kuphela ngokusebenzisa izixhobo ezikhethekileyo ezibuthathaka, ngelixa. iinyikima ngaphezu kobukhulu besi-8 kunokubangela ukuba umhlaba ushukume ngamandla kakhulu. Inyikima idla ngokulandelwa ziinyikima ezininzi ezenzeka ngendlela efanayo nezitshabalalisa ngokulinganayo kwaye amaxesha amaninzi ubunzulu nobukhali bazo bufana nenyikima yokuqala. Ukuzamazama okunjalo emva kwenyikima kwenzeka ngokubanzi kwiyure yokuqala okanye ngosuku emva kweyona nto iphambili inyikima. Uqikelelo lwesithuba sokusasazwa kweenyikima emva koko kulucelomngeni kakhulu.
Izazinzulu ziqulunqe imithetho yokuchaza ubungakanani kunye nexesha leenyikima kodwa ukukhomba indawo ezikuyo kusengumngeni. Abaphandi kuGoogle nakwiYunivesithi yaseHarvard baye baqulunqa indlela entsha yokuvavanya iinyikima kunye noqikelelo lwendawo yeenyikima zisebenzisa itekhnoloji yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa kuphononongo lwabo olupapashwe indalo. Basebenzisa ngokukodwa ukufundwa koomatshini-inkalo yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa. Kwindlela yokufunda koomatshini, umatshini 'ufunda' kwiseti yedatha kwaye emva kokufumana olu lwazi unako ukusebenzisa olu lwazi ukwenza uqikelelo malunga nedatha entsha.
Abaphandi baqale bahlalutya isiseko sedatha yeenyikima zehlabathi besebenzisa i-algorithms yokufunda nzulu. Ukufunda nzulu luhlobo oluqhubela phambili lokufunda koomatshini apho uthungelwano lwe-neural luzama ukulinganisa inkqubo yokucinga yobuchopho bomntu. Okulandelayo, bajonge ukukwazi yaqikelelwa emva kweenyikima bhetele kunokuqikelela okungakhethiyo kwaye uzame ukusombulula ingxaki 'yaphi' iinyikima eziya kwenzeka emva koko. Uqwalaselo oluqokelelwe kwiinyikima ezinkulu ezingaphezulu kwe-199 kwihlabathi jikelele lusetyenziswe malunga ne-131,000 yeenyikima ezinkulu emva kweenyikima. Olu lwazi ludityaniswe nemodeli esekwe kwifiziksi echaza ukuba njani umhlaba iya kuba nzima kwaye ibenzima emva kwe inyikima eya kuthi emva koko iqalise iinyikima. Baye benza iigridi ezisikweri zeekhilomitha ezi-5 ngaphakathi apho inkqubo iya kukhangela i-aftershock. Uthungelwano lwemithambo-luvo luzakwenza unxulumano phakathi kobunzima obubangelwa yinyikima enkulu kunye nendawo yeenyikima emva koko. Nje ukuba inkqubo yenethiwekhi ye-neural iqeqeshwe kakuhle ngolu hlobo, ikwazile ukuqikelela indawo yeenyikima ngokuchanekileyo. Uphononongo belunzima kakhulu njengoko lusebenzisa idatha entsonkothileyo yehlabathi lokwenyani yeenyikima. Abaphandi ngenye indlela bamisa eyenziweyo kunye nohlobo lweenyikima 'ezifanelekileyo' ukwenza uqikelelo kwaye emva koko kuphononongwe iingqikelelo. Ukujonga imveliso yenethiwekhi ye-neural, bazamile ukuhlalutya ukuba yeyiphi 'imiyinge' eyahlukileyo enokulawula uqikelelo lweenyikima ezizayo. Emva kokwenza uthelekiso lwesithuba, abaphandi bafikelela kwisigqibo sokuba ipateni eqhelekileyo yokungcangcazela 'yayitolika' ngokwasemzimbeni. Iqela licebisa ukuba inani elibizwa ngokuba yi-second variant ye-deviatoric stress tension - ebizwa ngokuba yi-J2 - ibambe isitshixo. Eli nani litolika kakhulu kwaye lisetyenziswa rhoqo kwi-metallurgy nakwamanye amacandelo kodwa alizange lisetyenziswe ngaphambili ekufundeni ngeenyikima.
Iinyikima zasemva kweenyikima zibangela ukwenzakala okungaphaya, umonakalo wezakhiwo kwaye zithintela iinzame zokuhlangula ngoko ke ukuzixela kwangaphambili kuya kusindisa ubomi boluntu. Uqikelelo lwexesha lokwenyani lusenokungenzeki ngalo mzuzu njengoko iimodeli ze-AI zangoku zinokujongana nohlobo oluthile lokungcangcazela kwasemva kwenyikima kunye nomgca wempazamo yejoloji kuphela. Oku kubalulekile kuba imigca yeempazamo zejografi inejiyometri eyahlukileyo kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zejografi iplanethi. Ke, isenokungasebenzi okwangoku kwiintlobo ezahlukeneyo zeenyikima kwihlabathi liphela. Nangona kunjalo, itekhnoloji yengqondo eyenziweyo ibonakala ifanelekile kwiinyikima ngenxa ye-n inani lezinto eziguquguqukayo ekufuneka ziqwalaselwe xa ufunda, umzekelo amandla othusayo, indawo yeetectonic plates njl.njl.
Uthungelwano lwe-Neural luyilelwe ukuba luphucuke ngokuhamba kwexesha, okt njengoko idatha eninzi ifakwa kwisistim, ukufunda ngakumbi kuyenzeka kwaye nenkqubo iphucuka ngokuthe ngcembe. Kwixesha elizayo inkqubo enjalo inokuba yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yeenkqubo zokuqikelela ezisetyenziswa ziingcali zeseismologists. Abacwangcisi banokusebenzisa imilinganiselo yonxunguphalo esekelwe kulwazi lokuziphatha kwenyikima. Iqela lifuna ukusebenzisa itekhnoloji yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa ukuqikelela ubungakanani beenyikima.
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{Unokufunda iphepha lokuqala lophando ngokunqakraza ikhonkco le-DOI elinikwe ngezantsi kuluhlu lwemithombo ecatshulweyo (s)}
Umthombo (s)
DeVries PMR et al. 2018. Ukufunda nzulu ngeepateni zenyikima emva kweenyikima ezinkulu. indaloI-560 (7720).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0438-y
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