Uphononongo lubonisa iziphumo ezibi kakhulu imo iyatshintsha emoyeni ngco liseko ngoko ke kuchaphazela ukufa kwabantu kwihlabathi liphela
Uphononongo olutsha lubonise ukuba kwixesha elizayo ukutshintsha kwemozuluUkuba ishiywe ingaqwalaselwanga inokubangela ukufa okumalunga ne-60000 kwihlabathi liphela ngonyaka ka-2030 kwaye ngaphezulu kwe-250,000 yokufa kwi-2100 ngenxa yempembelelo yayo enamandla emoyeni. ngco liseko.
Uphononongo lupapashwe kwi indalo Imo iyatshintsha yongeze inani elikhulayo leengxelo kunye nobungqina obukhomba kwiziphumo ezahlukeneyo ezimbi zokutshintsha kwemozulu kwaye lixesha lokuba ithathwe "njengento yokwenyani" ingeyiyo "intsomi". Olu phononongo olwenziwe nguNjingalwazi uJason West kunye neqela lakhe kwiYunivesithi yaseNorth Carolina eChapel Hill, eMelika lolona phando lubanzi malunga nendlela. imo iyatshintsha iya kuba nefuthe kwi impilo yehlabathi ngokusebenzisa ukumoshwa komoya kuba abaphandi basebenzise iziphumo ezivela kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi imo iyatshintsha amaqela omzekelo.
Ukudityaniswa kweemodeli ezisetyenziselwa uhlalutyo
Abaphandi basebenzise ezininzi intsebenziswano yehlabathi mozulu iimodeli (i-United States, i-United Kingdom, iFransi, i-Japan kunye ne-New Zealand) ukugqiba inani eliqikelelweyo lokufa kwangaphambi kwexesha eliya kwenzeka ngo-2030 kunye ne-2100 ngenxa ye-ozone ephantsi komhlaba kunye ne-fine particulate matter (ingakumbi i-PM 2.5). Kuzo zonke ezi modeli bavavanye utshintsho olunokwenzeka kumgangatho womoya ophantsi ngco liseko ezinokuthi zibalelwe ngokuthe ngqo kwixesha elizayo ngokubanzi imo iyatshintsha.
Olu tshintsho lwaye lwabekwa phezu koluntu lwehlabathi ngoko ke kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukukhula kwabemi kunye notshintsho olunokwenzeka olukhokelela ekwandeni kokuchaphazeleka. ukumoshwa komoya. Iziphumo zibonisa ukuba imo iyatshintsha kulindeleke ukuba kubangele ukunyuka komoya ngco liseko-ukusweleka okunxulumene kwihlabathi liphela nakuyo yonke imimandla yehlabathi (ephezulu eIndiya naseMpuma Asia) nangona i-Afrika yayilukhululo. Iimodeli ezintlanu kwezisibhozo zaxela kwangaphambili ukufa kwangaphambi kwexesha kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2030, kwaye imodeli ezisixhenxe kwezilithoba zaqikelela ukuba ziyafana ngo-2100.
Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo ngakumbi
Imo iyatshintsha njengokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi kuthanda ukukhawulezisa ukusabela kweekhemikhali ezidala ungcoliseko lomoyaifana ne-ozone kunye ne-fine particulate matter. Iindawo zejografi eziye zome ngakumbi ngaphandle kwemvula okanye imvula encinci zikwabonisa ukwanda kongcoliseko lomoya ngenxa yezinto ezinjengokususwa kancinci Izinto ezingcolisa umoya yimvula, imililo eyandileyo kunye nothuli. Ikhuselo eliluhlaza (imithi nengca) nalo likhupha ngokuthelekisa ngakumbi eziphilayo ungcoliso kumaqondo obushushu ashushu. Imo iyatshintsha ichaphazela ngamandla ukugxilwa kwezingcolisi zomoya ezichaphazela umgangatho womoya kwaye ngaloo ndlela zinefuthe kwimpilo iyonke. Yisangqa esikhohlakeleyo kwaye iqala ngotshintsho lwemozulu kwimvelaphi yayo.
Udumo lwe imo iyatshintsha ayipheleli apha. Ayinaxanduva kuphela ekwandiseni ukufa okunxulumene nongcoliseko lomoya, kodwa kulindeleke ukuba ibangele isifo semiphunga, iimeko zentliziyo, uxinzelelo lobushushu bestroke, ukunqongophala kwamanzi acocekileyo nokutya, izaqhwithi kunye nokusasazeka kwezifo ezosulelayo ezibeka umthwalo omkhulu kwimpilo yoluntu. Imo iyatshintsha unciphiso luyimfuneko yeyure enokuthi inciphise ukumoshwa komoya-ukufa okunxulumeneyo kwihlabathi liphela.
***
Umthombo (s)
USilva RA et al. 2017. Ikamva lokufa kweHlabathi ukusuka kwiiNguqulelo kuNgcoliseko loMoya oluyalelwe ku Imo iyatshintsha. Uhlobo lweTshintsho lwemozulu. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3354
***
Amagqabantshintshi zivaliwe.