Unxibelelwano loluntu kunye nogonyo zombini zinegalelo kuphuhliso lokhuselo lomhlambi kodwa uphuhliso lokugonywa komhlambi ngenxa yonxibelelwano loluntu lulingana ngokuthe ngqo nenani losulelo lwesibini oluvela kwiimeko zokuqala. Ukunganyangeki komhlambi kuthiwa kuye kwasekwa xa ipesenti enkulu yabantu yosuleleka, xa sinokuthi ukuvalwa kwendawo kunokuphakanyiswa ukuze ubomi obuqhelekileyo boluntu buqale kwakhona. Ukungakhuseleki ngokuyinxenye komhlambi ngokuchasene ne-COVID-19 kunokwenzeka nakubantu abosulelwe uhlobo olungelubi kakhulu lwentsholongwane kwaye ukuba abantu bosulelwe ngaphambili kusapho olunxulumeneyo lwentsholongwane yomkhuhlane.
'Ukungafikeleki komzimba' luchazwa njengokhuselo kusulelo olufunyanwa ngabantu emva kokuchanabeka kwiintsholongwane ezibangela isifo kwindawo eqhelekileyo yentlalo yoluntu okanye xa abantu betofelwe ngeendlela ezibuthathaka okanye ezibuthathaka zeentsholongwane ezibanga isifo ngokusebenzisa isitofu esiveliswe eso sifo. . Kuzo zombini ezi meko, umzimba uyakhula kwaye ufunde ukuphuhlisa izilwa-buhlungu zokhuselo kulo naluphi na usulelo lwexesha elizayo ziintsholongwane ezifanayo. Ke ngoko, kwintsebenziswano yentlalontle abantu abasempilweni bafumana usulelo oluvela kubantu abosulelekileyo kwikhondo eliqhelekileyo lobomi bentlalo kodwa kugonyo abantu abangosulelwanga basempilweni balawulwa ngokwenziwa ngogonyo njengonyango lokuqalisa umzimba ukuvelisa izilwa-buhlungu ngaloo ndlela kuthintelwa usulelo.
Ngoko ke, zombini 'unxibelelwano loluntu' kunye 'nogonyo' zizixhobo ezibalulekileyo ekuphuhliseni ukhuselo lomhlambi ngokuchasene ne-a isifo kuluntu; Eyangaphambili ayizi xabiso okanye iphazamise uqoqosho okanye uluntu kodwa ibeka amanye amalungu oluntu kuxinzelelo olubi lokukhetha kwaye ngaloo ndlela inokubiza ubomi. Kwelinye icala, uphuhliso lwesitofu sokugonya lutya ixesha kwaye lufaka utyalo-mali olukhulu lwemali kwaye ngokunjalo nokulawula ugonyo. Ngenxa yoku kuphikisana, akukho lula kubenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo ukwenza izicwangciso zokwandisa olona setyenziso lungcono lwezixhobo ezibini zophuhliso lokhuselo lomhlambi. Kuphi ukubetha ulungelelwaniso phakathi 'kwezimbini' zokulahleka okuncinci kobomi kunye nakwimeko yobhubhani eguquka ngokukhawuleza njengaleyo Covid-19 sisigqibo esinzima kakhulu ukuba usenze- ukuba uvumela 'unxibelelwano loluntu' ukuze kukhule ukhuselo lomhlambi, ugcina uqoqosho luqhuba kodwa oko kunokukhokelela ekubhubheni okuphezulu kungoko ukuziqhelanisa 'kokudelela ekuhlaleni kuyafuneka de kufumaneke izitofu kunye nonyango. Ukongeza koku yingxaki yokwazi ngokuthe ngqo ukuba inqanaba elaneleyo lokungakhuseleki komhlambi liye laphuhla nini phakathi kwabemi ukuze kuvumeleke unxibelelwano olulinganiselweyo okanye olupheleleyo lwentlalo emva Amazing.
Enye yezinto eziphambili ezixhalabisayo kwihlabathi liphela ngoku ngokubhekisele kubhubhani we-COVID-19, kukwazi ukuba kuye kwafikelelwa nini ukhuseleko lomhlambi ukuze kucwangciswe ixesha lokuphinda kuqale “ukuphila okuqhelekileyo” kwilizwe ngalinye elichatshazelwe ngubhubhane.
'KwiLeta eya kuMhleli' eyathunyelwa nge-21 kuMatshi ka-2020 'kwiJournal of Infection' ngu-Kwok KO., uFlorence Lai F et al., uchaza ukuba ubukhulu bosulelo lwesibini olubangelwa iimeko eziphambili luphawu oluluncedo kuzo zombini umngcipheko wobhubhane kunye neenzame ezifunekayo ukulawula usulelo. Oku kuchazwa njengenani lokuzala u-R, elinokubalwa kusetyenziswa umfuziselo wezibalo kuthathelwa ingqalelo inani lamatyala amatsha aphuhliswayo ngexesha leyunithi nganye, inani leemeko ezifunyanwayo kunye nezinga lokusweleka eliyanyaniswa nosulelo. Nje ukuba i-R yaziwa, ipesenti ebalulekileyo yabantu (iPcrit) efuna ukosuleleka ukuze kuphuhliswe ukungakhuseleki komhlambi ingabalwa kusetyenziswa le fomula ilandelayo.
Ixabiso = 1-(1/R)
Ukongeza, ukuba umntu usandula ukosulelwa naluphi na uhlobo lwentsholongwane yomkhuhlane, banokutyekela kuhlobo olungelubi kakhulu lwe-COVID-19. Oku kunokucacisa ukuba kutheni abanye abantu abanokuba nomkhuhlane wamva nje bengenazimpawu kwaye banokungafumani sisifo sigcweleyo se-COVID-19.
Olunye uphononongo lwakutsha nje oluposwe nge-27 kaMatshi ngo-2020 kwiseva yokuprinta kwangaphambili, uKamikubo kunye noTakahashi bathetha malunga nezixhobo ze-epidemiological zokuxela kwangaphambili ukungakhuseleki komhlambi. Bachaza enye into enegalelo kuphuhliso lwe umhlambi ukungakhuseleki kwi-COVID-19 xa umntu esosulelwa sesi sifo ngokuphindaphinda kancinci kunye nohlobo lwakudala lwentsholongwane eyaziwa ngokuba luhlobo S ngokuchasene nohlobo L (uguqulelo lwamva nje olukwaziyo ukuziphindaphinda kunye nokusasaza ngokukhawuleza), ayikhuselekanga ukosuleleka ngakumbi nezinye iintsholongwane zomkhuhlane kwakunye nohlobo L (2). Uphuhliso lokhuselo lomhlambi lunokuqinisekiswa ngokwenza uvavanyo lweserological ukuchonga amajoni omzimba kwi-COVID-19. Oku kusenokubeka umqobo wemali kumazwe asaphuhlayo kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo kunokwamkelwa lilizwe eliphuhlileyo ukuze kuqaliswe ubomi obuqhelekileyo nokunciphisa ilahleko yezoqoqosho ukuya phambili.
Olu phononongo lucebisa ukuba ngokuhlela abantu ababekhe bosulelwa ngaphambili kunye nokwazi ipesenti ebalulekileyo yabantu abosulelwe yi-COVID-19 ngokuhambelana novavanyo olwaneleyo noluchanekileyo lwe-serological, umntu unokuqulunqa kwaye ahlengahlengise izicwangciso zokunyusa ukuvalwa ngokuyinxenye kunye/okanye ngokupheleleyo. indlela yokuqalisa kwakhona ubomi besiqhelo bentlalo ukuya phambili.
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Iingxelo:
Kwok KO., Florence Lai F et al., 2020. Ukunganyangeki komhlambi- ukuqikelela inqanaba elifunekayo ukumisa oobhubhani be-COVID-19 kumazwe achaphazelekayo. Ijenali yoSulelo. Ipapashwe: Matshi 21, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.03.027
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