Uhlolo lwesiqhelo lwesero ye labantu ukuqikelela ubukho be maqhinga ukuba Covid-19 iyadingeka ukuqonda uphuhliso lwe ukungazinzi komzimba kuluntu. Idatha evela kuphononongo lwe-sero-uphononongo lwabemi kwidolophu yase-Ischgl yase-Austria inika ukukhanya kulo mba kwaye ikhokelele abaphandi ukuba baphuhlise imodeli yokuxela kwangaphambili enokunceda ukucwangcisa isicwangciso esisebenzayo sokugonya kunye nongenelelo olungangeneleli lwabemi ngokuchasene nosulelo.
Idatha evela kuphononongo lwe-Ischgl ibonise ukuba malunga. I-42.4% yabemi babene-sero-positive emva kweenyanga ezili-9-10 zovavanyo ukususela ekuqaleni izigulane zaboniswa kwi umqhele intsholongwane1,2. Nangona kunjalo, oku kufuna ukusetyenziswa kwamajoni omzimba afanelekileyo kunye nokujoliswe kuko okufanelekileyo ukuqinisekisa ukuba abantu abanosulelo olungephi abaphoswa.3. Le datha evela kuphononongo lwe-Ischgl icebisa ukuba impendulo ye-antibody Covid-19 ayihlali nje ixesha elide kodwa inokuba ngumzekelo we ukungazinzi komzimba kuluntu. Oku, kwakhona, kubangela imfuneko yovavanyo lwesiqhelo lwesero kuluntu ukuqikelela inani labantu abane-antibody positive? Nangona olu phononongo lusenokungameli lonke uluntu, nangona kunjalo, lusenokusinceda ekuchongeni, hayi kuphela abantu abane-sero-positive, kodwa ngokungathanga ngqo kukhokelele ekuqikeleleni inani labantu eliza kufuna idosi yesitofu sokugonya okanye hayi. Oku kubaluleke kakhulu ngalo mzuzu, kuthathelwa ingqalelo into yokuba ulawulo lwesitofu sokugonya luchasene Covid-19 ijikeleza ngokupheleleyo kumazwe amaninzi kwaye umhlaba ulinde ngexhala ukubuyela “kubomi obuqhelekileyo” obabukho ngaphambi kwe-COVID-19. Oku kuya kwenza ukuba abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo kunye nabalawuli baphuhlise izikhokelo kunye nokuqinisekisa ukuba izibonelelo zokhathalelo lwempilo olwaneleyo zichithwa kubemi apho uphuhliso lwe-antibody luncinci.
Ukongezelela, olu pho nonongo luye lwabonisa ukuphuhliswa kwemodeli engabonakaliyo yokuxela kwangaphambili ngokusekelwe ekuzihloleni kweempawu ezintathu ezichongiweyo (ukukhwehlela, ukulahleka kwencasa / ukuvumba kunye neentlungu zentlungu) ezinokuthi ziqikelele ngokuchanekileyo abantu abane-sero-positive.4 kuluntu olusulelwe yi-coronavirus. Ukuxhaphazwa kwemodeli enjalo engangeneleli kunokuba luncedo kwihlabathi liphela ukulwa nobhubhani we-COVID-19 ngokuxela kwangaphambili ukuba sero-positive kubemi.
Ukudibanisa zombini ezi ndlela zokujongwa kwe-sero kunye nemodeli eqikelelweyo usebenzisa isoftware yeCHES5 ukumisela i-sero-positiveness, amazwe kwihlabathi liphela angacwangcisa ngokufanelekileyo izifundo zokucupha uphononongo ezinokuthi zincede ekulawuleni ubhubhane ngokuchitha imali yabarhafi ngokufanelekileyo kunye nokubuyisela ubuqhetseba ngokukhawuleza.
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Iingxelo:
- Ischgl: Ii-antibodies zehle kancinci. Ipapashwe kwi-intanethi nge-18 kaFebruwari 2021. Iyafumaneka apha https://tirol.orf.at/stories/3090797/ Ifikeleleke nge-19 kaFebruwari 2021.
- Innsbruck Medical University 2021. Press release – Ischgl study: 42.4 pesenti are antibody-positive. Iyafumaneka kwi-intanethi https://www.i-med.ac.at/pr/presse/2020/40.html Ifikeleleke nge-19 kaFebruwari 2021.
- Ngaba sikujongela phantsi ubukho be-SARS-CoV2. BMJ 2020; 370 yenza: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3364 (Ipapashwe nge-03 Septemba 2020)
- Lehmann, J., Giesinger, et al., 2021. Uqikelelo lwe-seroprevalence ye-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies usebenzisa iimpawu ezintathu ozixelayo: Ukuphuhliswa kwemodeli yokuqikelela ngokusekelwe kwidatha evela e-Ischgl, e-Austria. I-Epidemiology kunye ne-Infection, i-1-13. Ipapashwe kwi-intanethi yiCambridge University Press: 18 February 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000418
- Holzner B, Giesinger JM, Pinggera J, Zugal S, Schöpf F, Oberguggenberger AS, Gamper EM, Zabernigg A, Weber B, Rumpold G. I-Computer-based Health Evaluation Software (CHES): isoftwe ye-electronic isigulane-reported monitoring . BMC Med Yazisa Decis Mak. 2012 Nov 9; 12:126. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-12-126.
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