Kuyaxaka ukuba kutheni i-China ikhethe ukuphakamisa umgaqo-nkqubo we-zero-COVID kwaye ishenxise ii-NPI ezingqongqo, ebusika, kanye ngaphambi koNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina, xa i-BF.7 eyayisasazeke kakhulu yayisele isetyenziswa.
"I-WHO ixhalabile kakhulu ngenxa yemeko eqhubekayo eTshayina", utshilo uMlawuli-Jikelele we-WHO ngoLwesithathu (20th NgoDisemba 2022) kuqhaqho oluphezulu kwiimeko ze-COVID iTshayina.
Ngelixa ilizwe liphela libuyela phantsi kobhubhani, i-China yayinezinga elisezantsi losulelo ngenxa yokwamkelwa okuqhubekayo komgaqo-nkqubo we-zero-COVID ngokuphunyezwa ngokungqongqo kongenelelo olungasebenzisi mayeza (NPIs). Ungenelelo olungasebenzisi mayeza okanye amanyathelo okunciphisa abahlali zizixhobo zempilo yoluntu ezifana nokuhamba ngokwasemzimbeni, ukuzimela wedwa, ukunciphisa ubungakanani beendibano, ukuvalwa kwezikolo, ukusebenza usekhaya, njl njl ezinceda ekuthinteleni nasekulawuleni ukusasazeka kwezifo eluntwini. Ii-NPIs ezingqongqo zithintele kakhulu abantu-kubantu ukusebenzisana okukhawulela ngokwanelisayo amazinga osulelo lwentsholongwane kwaye akwazi ukugcina inani lokufa lisezantsi. Kwangaxeshanye, unxibelelwano olusondele ku-zero aluzange lube luncedo kuphuhliso lwendalo ukungazinzi komzimba.
Kunye nee-NPIs ezingqongqo, i-China ikwaye yenze ugonyo olukhulu lwe-COVID-19 (isebenzisa i-Sinovac okanye i-CoronaVac isitofu sokugonya esingasebenziyo sentsholongwane.) ebone malunga nama-92% abantu befumana idosi enye ubuncinci. Inani labantu abadala beqela leminyaka engama-80+ (ababuthathaka ngakumbi), nangona kunjalo, belinganelisekanga kangako kwi-77% (bafumene ubuncinane idosi enye), i-66% (ifumene i-2nd dose), kunye ne-41% (ifumene idosi ye-booster ngokunjalo. ).
Ukungabikho kokugonywa komhlambi abantu baye bashiywa kuphela kwisitofu sokugonya esisebenzayo esinokuthi singasebenzi kakuhle ngokuchasene naluphi na uhlobo olutsha kunye / okanye, ekuhambeni kwexesha, ugonyo olubangelwa kukugonya lunokuba luye lwaphela. Oku kunye nokungonelisiyo kogonyo lwe-booster kwathetha amanqanaba asezantsi kugonyo phakathi kwabantu base China.
Kungemva koku, i-China yaphakamisa umgaqo-nkqubo ongqongqo we-zero-COVID ngoDisemba ka-2022. Uqhanqalazo oludumileyo lusenokuba luxanduva lokutshintshela ekubeni “kunganyamezeli i-zero eguquguqukayo” (DZT) ukuya “kukungabikho konke okwenziwayo” (TNI).
Ukucuthwa kwezithintelo, nangona kunjalo, kubangele ukwanda okukhulu kwiimeko. Iingxelo ezingaqinisekiswanga ezivela e-China zibonisa inani elikhulu labantu ababhubhayo kunye nokugcwala kwezibhedlele kunye namaziko ononophelo lomngcwabo kunokuba bekuxelwe ngokusemthethweni. Inani lilonke lehlabathi lidlule kwisiqingatha sesigidi semiba yemihla ngemihla kwiveki ephela nge-19 kaDec, 2022. Abanye baqikelela ukuba isantya sangoku sinokuba sisiqalo samaza obusika obuthathu, anxulunyaniswa nohambo oluninzi ngaphambi nasemva kwemibhiyozo yoNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina ngowama-22 NgoJanuwari 2023 (ipateni ekhumbuza isigaba sokuqala se-COVID-19 bhubhane ibonwe kwi-2019-2020).
Kubonakala ngathi, BF.7, i-omicron subvariant eyayanyaniswa nokuqhambuka kweemeko ze-COVID-19 e-China iyosulela kakhulu. Inani elisebenzayo lokuvelisa kolu hlobo lungaphantsi eBeijing ngoNovemba ukuya kuDisemba ka-2022 kuqikelelwa ukuba liphezulu njenge-3.421.
Imeko ye-COVID-19 yase-China kungekudala ibonakala ingumceli mngeni. Ngokwemodeli esekwe kwidatha yobhubhani yamva nje yaseMacau, eHong Kong, naseSingapore, abantu abazizigidi ezisisi-1.49 baqikelelwa ukuba babhubhile e-China ngaphakathi kweentsuku ezili-180. Ukuba ukungenelela okuphumlisiweyo okungenzi mayeza (NPIs) kwamkelwa emva kokuqhambuka kokuqala, inani lokufa linokuthotywa nge-36.91% phakathi kweentsuku ezingama-360 Oku kubizwa ngokuba yi-"flatten-the-curve" (FTC) indlela. Ugonyo olupheleleyo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwamachiza e-anti-COVID kunokunciphisa inani lokusweleka phakathi kwabantu abadala (iminyaka engama-60 kunye) ukuya kwi-0.40 yezigidi (ukusuka kwi-0.81 yezigidi eziqikelelweyo)2.
Enye imodeli yeeprojekthi zophononongo kwimeko engaphantsi kakhulu - phakathi kwe-268,300 ukuya kwi-398,700 yokufa, kunye namanani aphezulu amatyala anzima phakathi kwe-3.2 ukuya kwi-6.4 nge-10,000 yabemi ngaphambi kokuba i-wave ihlehle ngoFebruwari 2023. Ukunyanzeliswa kwee-NPI ezibuthathaka kunokunciphisa inani lokufa nge-8% ngelixa i-NPI engqongqo. kunokunciphisa ukufa ngama-30% (xa kuthelekiswa nokungabikho kwamangenelelo ngokupheleleyo). Ukugqunywa kwedosi ye-booster ekhawulezayo kunye nee-NPI ezingqongqo ziya kunceda ukuphucula imeko3.
Kuyaxaka ukuba kutheni i-China ikhethe ukuphakamisa umgaqo-nkqubo we-zero-COVID kwaye ishenxise ii-NPI ezingqongqo, ebusika, kanye ngaphambi koNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina, xa i-BF.7 eyayisasazeke kakhulu yayisele isetyenziswa.
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Iingxelo:
- Leung K., okqhubekayo., 2022. Ukuqikelela ukuhanjiswa kwe-Omicron eBeijing, ngoNovemba ukuya kuDisemba 2022. Preprint medRxiv. Ithunyelwe nge-16 kuDisemba 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.15.22283522
- Ilanga J., Li Y., Shao N., kunye noLiu M., 2022. Ngaba kunokwenzeka ukuthambisa ijika emva kokuqhambuka kokuqala kweCovid-19? Uhlalutyo oluqhutywa yidatha yobhubhani we-Omicron eTshayina. Ushicilelo lwangaphambili medRxiv . Ithunyelwe nge-22 kaDisemba 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.21.22283786
- Ingoma F., kunye ne-Bachmann MO, 2022. Ukwenza umzekelo wokuqhambuka kwe-SARS-CoV-2 Omicron ezahlukeneyo emva kokunciphisa isicwangciso seDynamic Zero-COVID kwilizwe laseTshayina. Shicilela kwangaphambili medRxiv. Ithunyelwe nge-22 kaDisemba 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.12.22.22283841
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